Oct vi, 2021

  • Bradford DoolittleESPN Staff Writer

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    • Sports reporter, Kansas City Star, 2002-09
    • Writer, Baseball, Baseball Prospectus
    • Co-author, Pro Basketball Prospectus
    • Member, Baseball Writers Association of America
    • Member, Professional Basketball Writers Association

It may have been a miraculous season for the St. Louis Cardinals, who stormed their way into the playoffs after being all but out of the race over the summer, but the miracle has finally ended.

It'southward the tertiary year in a row the Cardinals have made the playoffs, merely what's their time to come outlook now that it'south all over? Bradford Doolittle takes a look at where the Cardinals stand and answers three central questions for the club moving forward to 2022 and beyond.

St. Louis Cardinals

Notable free agents: Matt Carpenter ($ii million buyout on club option), Andrew Miller, Carlos Martinez ($500K buyout on guild option), J.A Happ, Jon Lester (mutual option), Kwang Hyun Kim

Trade candidates: Paul DeJong, Jack Flaherty

Extension candidates: Flaherty, Dylan Carlson, Tyler O'Neill, Harrison Bader, Alex Reyes

i. Will the Cardinals wade into the shortstop market?

A dreadful offensive season from Paul DeJong forced the Cardinals to requite a lot of shortstop time to slick-fielding Edmundo Sosa, whose bat is non actually suited for full-time duty. DeJong has two more guaranteed seasons left on the early extension he signed a few years ago, plus a couple of society options, but the money is reasonable, and if the Cardinals desire to move him to make space for ane of this winter'southward premier shortstop costless agents, they probably could.

Going large at the acme of the free-agent marketplace is not the Cardinals' way, of grade. The stars on the roster whom the Cardinals brought in from outside the organisation -- Nolan Arenado and Paul Goldschmidt -- were both trade acquisitions, which is more than St. Louis' style. Notwithstanding, bringing in a dynamic offensive shortstop would be the best mode to provide more than than a marginal upgrade to the Redbirds' assail without disrupting the squad's elite defence, or the special mix they've gathered in the outfield.

Corey Seager, Carlos Correa, Marcus Semien, Javier Baez (probably not), Trevor Story -- all would be a great on-field fit. With DeJong nether contract and Sosa proving himself to, at the very least, be a big-league-caliber utility player, information technology's non something the Cardinals accept to exercise. But should they?

2. Is Jack Flaherty an ace?

Over the second half of the 2019 flavor, Flaherty looked similar a perennial Cy Young candidate who was but striking his stride. He didn't pitch every bit well in 2020, but information technology was more a matter of inconsistency than annihilation else and, anyway, it was 2020. This season, Flaherty couldn't stay good for you, ending up with simply 15 regular-flavour starts and 78 1/3 innings. Even when he pitched, the inconsistency continued. And while his ERA was good (3.22), Statcast's expected ERA was an cruddy 4.83, down only a chip from his 5.07 marker a season ago.

There was a lot of back-and-forth online concluding winter well-nigh the timing and possibility of a Flaherty extension, specially after he went to mediation with the Cardinals on his 2021 contract. At this point, it'southward off-white to wonder on what, exactly, St. Louis would be basing such an offer, if i were forthcoming. Would information technology be the Gibson-esque dominator from 2019? Or the more mid-rotation-ish player from the last two partial (for him) seasons?

The thing is, while rotation injuries left St. Louis scrambling for innings in 2021, going forward this still looks like a strong group. But it's a group that screams for a archetype ace -- such as the one Flaherty fleetingly appeared to be. With two more arbitration seasons left on his service clock (pending the details of the new collective bargaining understanding), it's time for St. Louis management to make a telephone call.

Do you lock up Flaherty equally an ace? Or, if you don't think that'southward what he is, exercise you dangle him on the merchandise market while his value remains strong? If you let it ride, do you chance Flaherty eroding that trade value -- or pricing himself out of an extension you end up wishing yous'd given him?

iii. Speaking of that rotation, how does it stack up for 2022?

The Cardinals already reached an understanding with longtime rotation stalwart Adam Wainwright for 2022. Joining him will be Miles Mikolas and, presumably, Flaherty.

After that, things are unclear, but not in a bad manner -- the Cards take plenty of options. Veteran J.A. Happ was effective in his fourth dimension with the Cardinals, turning around a poor operation in Minnesota, and could be amenable to a return. Alex Reyes is a stiff possibility to move into the rotation. Top prospects Matthew Liberatore and Zack Thompson both spent this season in Triple-A. Liberatore had some ups and downs, but progressed nicely through the season. Thompson struggled. Dakota Hudson returned afterwards a long injury rehab to bring together the staff at the end of the season, and should exist back to a normal routine entering 2022.

The Cardinals will need to make a decision on the club choice for erratic Carlos Martinez, and as well whether to pursue Kwang Hyun Kim, who will hit gratuitous bureau later just ii mostly successful large league seasons.

And so there are options -- and they are more often than not adept ones. More than anything though: After 2021, the Cardinals accept to make sure there is enough depth in the high minors to cover for injuries.

Oh, and one terminal thing just to leave for whatsoever Cardinals fan who dares to dream: There is an elite starting bullpen on the market who only happens to hail from the St. Louis area. Y'all may take heard of him: Max Scherzer.